Week 1: Bottom of the Mountain

Hi gang,

Residing in the Hawaiian islands is the Sicyopterus stimpsoni, more commonly referred to as the “rock climbing goby”. It is a rare fish born on the salty shores of the Pacific and cursed by evolution to undertake a great pilgrimage. While only juveniles, smaller than 20 centimeters in length, the goby’s anatomy changes and their mouths become incapable of eating plankton, their main source of nutrients. They must turn then to rock surface algae growing all the way at the summit peaks of the island chain. How do they reach said algae? They climb. The goby use their newly developed mouths to hoist themselves up the waterfalls and reach their adult communities at the top of the mountain. There, they dine on that sweet algae and lay their eggs, which are washed downstream for the cycle to start again.

Here we are people. Week 1. The bottom of the mountain. Draft season is over, but your job is not d1. Waiver claims. Trades. Lineup decisions. Through the next few months, adversity certainly awaits, but just remember the algae: bragging rights (and maybe some m1y) over your friends and colleagues.

If you received this email, it’s because at some point, I heard that you play fantasy football. If you don’t want to be on this distro list anymore, please say so. I will not be offended. For those who want to stay, let’s climb.

Same Faces, New Places

In case you had a life these past 5 months, here’s what you missed in free agency.

• WR Davante Adams, NYJ -> LAR – After a move across the country mid-season last year, Adams moves again in free agency, and back to the west coast. This veteran receiver, multi-time pro bowler, and perennial #1 is now the #2 for this cheat code Matthew Stafford and Sean McVay offense. He is 32-years-old, but was still the PPR WR11 in 2 really awkward situations last season. Now entering his best situation since Green Bay, both Adams and running mate WR Puka Nacua may both go nuclear this year. There are worse WR1s, but if Adams is your WR2, you cooked in the draft.

• WR George Pickens, PIT -> DAL – Pickens is a fourth year player out of Georgia, who is among the most talented young receivers in the league. He has however been held back by Pittsburgh QB play, inconsistent play calling, lack of receiver support, and his own temper, so far in his career. In an offseason trade, he goes from Pittsburgh to Dallas, where most of the above is solved. Playing opposite WR Ceedee Lamb, catching passes from QB Dak Prescott, and playing for a new contract himself, I like Pickens a lot this year.

• WR DK Metcalf, SEA -> PIT – Replacing Pickens as the #1 in the Steel City is athletic specimen receiver DK Metcalf. Never quite recapturing his rookie year magic in Seattle, Metcalf gets moved and receives an uncharacteristically large contract from the Steelers. Being the primary option for Aaron Rodgers is usually a recipe for success, but it’s a run-first offense that is more than happy to win games 12-7, so I don’t know about Metcalf this year. I’m avoiding.

• WR Cooper Kupp, LAR -> SEA – And to complete the circle, Cooper Kupp is signed to the Seahawks. Though Kupp is a former triple crowner and a true NFL success story, I’m avoiding him as well. A new-look offense plus a defense-minded coach plus Kupp’s recent injury woes is too much variance for me to trust him all season. If you draft a rookie who may start slow though, or a Rashee Rice, who will miss the first 6 games, he’s not a terrible option as an early season band-aid. But don’t hold your breath for a return to peak form.

• WR Stefon Diggs, HOU -> NE – Another veteran just looking for his forever home, the 31-year-old Diggs queues up to be New England #1 receiver this year. He seems to be fully recovered from his ACL tear suffered in Houston last season and the Patriots offense looks to be much-improved in QB Drake Maye’s second year. I, however, am out. There is another Patriot receiver I’d prefer to target and more on that later.

• QB Aaron Rodgers, NYJ -> PIT – Believe it or not, Aaron Rodgers is in the news. In his 2 years, the Jets went from the everyone’s favorite dark horse AFC winner to the bottom of their division. That chapter is (almost) behind both the Jets and Rodgers though, as he becomes pilot of the Steelers offense. For real life football, I do not claim to understand Rodgers, nor Arthur Smith, nor Yinzer nation, so maybe it will work. For fantasy, I could not be less interested.

• QB Justin Fields, PIT -> NYJ – And on the other hand, The Rodgers vacancy goes to sparkplug Georgia QB Justin Fields. Fields has had a really strange road in the NFL. He started his career as the only ray of sun in a Chicago downpour. When presented with the #1 pick and “generational” QB Caleb Williams though, they moved Fields to Pittsburgh for some loose change. Fields then started and played pretty well. He got a few wins and then got benched for Russell Wilson returning from a pre-season injury. Now, he is once again the guy, this time for the New York Jets, and I for one am rooting for him. For fantasy, he’s not amazing and not bad. If you wait on QB on your draft, I like Fields and his rushing floor as a late-round option.

• QB Russell Wilson, PIT -> NYG – Why? Couldn’t tell you. Wilson signs with the Giants it seems only to warm the seat until late first-rounder QB Jaxson Dart is ready to take over. At this point in his career, just don’t hurt yourself. In a 1QB league, there is no reason to roster Russel Wilson.

• QB Sam Darnold, MIN -> SEA – After Darnold lead the Vikings to 14 wins last year, the team moves back to their plan-A and 2024 draftee QB JJ McCarthy. Darnold gets a nice contract from Seattle and with decent receiving options in WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba and WR Cooper Kupp, ehhhh it could be okay. It seems like everyone in the fantasy streets are still sleeping on Darnold and I am a part of the problem. No thanks for me. The Seahawks are going to win with their defense, so Darnold won’t need to be a superhero.

• QB Geno Smith, SEA -> LV – And completing the carousel at this position, Geno Smith gets traded down to his old coach Pete Carroll and the Las Vegas Raiders. The Raiders have some fun pieces on offense in revelation TE Brock Bowers and 6^th overall pick RB Ashton Jeanty. No thanks again. I think Geno is just mid. He’s an okay QB2 in a superflex league, but otherwise, nah.

• TE Evan Engram, JAX -> DEN – Evan Engram is a fine football player. After being drafted by the Giants with high expectation, he was only fine. He then went to the Jaguars and was fine there. And now he’s a Bronco and will likely be fine. A decent late-round target or waiver add if you waited on tight end.

• TE Jonnu Smith, MIA -> PIT – It was fun while it lasted, huh? If there is enough passing in Pittsburgh to make Metcalf relevant, he will be the only one. I know he was a hero for teams late last year but trust me on this one. Don’t draft Jonnu.

• RB Javonte Williams, DEN -> DAL – I mention Javonte only because there is a job up for grabs in Dallas. Javonte is probably cooked but there would be money to make here if he gets a majority of the carries for the Cowboys.

• RB Miles Sanders, CAR -> DAL – *note to self: copy and paste Javonte Williams description

And New Faces

What I’m about to tell you is an unbending principle of fantasy football. Rookies win championships. There is no higher upside in late rounds and on early season waiver wires than rookies with opportunity. Those who “need to see it first” missed out on RB Bucky Irving, WR Brian Thomas Jr., WR Ladd McConkey, WR Malik Nabers, and TE Brock Bowers last year. Do not let that be you. Here are the names to know.

• RB Ashton Jeanty, LV – The #6 overall pick out of Boise State, and the next “generational talent” at the running back position. I imagine if your league has already drafted, whoever took him is privy to said talent and therefore will not be eager trade him. If he starts slow and you can get him at a discount, do it. He’s a power runner and a proven receiver, the whole package. Can’t go wrong here.

• WR Tetairoa McMillan, CAR – The #8 overall pick out of Arizona and the new #1 target in Carolina. After QB Bryce Young broke out at the end of last season, you’re betting on that to continue with McMillan and I, personally, am. Tet does not have much competition in the receiver room, so if the offense goes, he goes.

• WR Travis Hunter, JAX – The reigning Heisman winner and #2 overall pick in the NFL draft out of Colorado and a no-quotes-needed true generational player. Not for fantasy reasons, however. Hunter is a unicorn 2-way player in the NFL, who the Jaguars will be attempting to play at both wide receiver and cornerback. Offense and defense. An exciting storyline to follow this year, and the single best player in IDP leagues. For standard redraft though, it’s not great. Hunter may just be a good enough wide receiver to smash his ADP, but any snap he plays on defense is another opportunity to get injured for fantasy owners. If he is playing minimal defense and starts slow, I will be trading for him. If it’s closer to a 50/50 split and he is not playing 75/80%+ of their snaps at wide receiver, I’m probably out for this year.

• RB Omarion Hampton, LAC – Hampton is another first round pick to the Chargers, where HC Jim Harbaugh loves to run the ball. Hampton will be competing with former Steeler RB Najee Harris for the majority workload and I am confident he will win it. It may take a few weeks but Hampton’s talent and the first round RB fantasy hit rates is enough evidence for me to bet on.

• RB TreVeyon Henderson, NE – Henderson was half of the national champion Ohio State backfield. He is a very talented receiving back with speed and agility. Similar to Hampton, he is sharing a backfield with RB Rhamondre Stevenson, who may get some early season veteran favoritism, but I am confident that Henderson will at least win the long distance role for the ascending Patriots offense.

• RB Quinshon Judkins, CLE – Judkins is the other half. He was the thunder to Henderson’s lightning in college and had a lot of hope for a large role in Cleveland after his day 2 draft capital. Rookie training camp has been an eventful for Judkins in a bad way. Or maybe uneventful, because he’s not there. On top of extended league-wide second-rounder contract disputes, Judkins was facing a domestic violence misdemeanor charge this summer. Compared to the weight of such an allegation, NFL playing time is beside the point, but this is a fantasy newsletter so let’s talk about the implications. Judkins has, as of Wednesday, still not signed his rookie contract and has not been with the team throughout their entire training camp. Judkins is talented and I would still wager that he wins the starting job over fellow rookie RB Dylan Sampson and Browns veteran RB Jerome Ford before the end of this season, but for fantasy, I’m out.

• WR Emeka Egbuka, TB – FUN PICK. Egbuka was the perennial #2 WR at Ohio State, not because he lacked talent, but because he shared a locker room with some of the best student athletes in the country. When he was selected by the Buccaneers in the back half of the first-round, that was a head scratcher. They already have Mr. Consistency WR Mike Evans, WR Chris Godwin who has shown enormous upside, and rookie breakout WR Jalen McMillan. Do they need another? Fast forward to preseason. Godwin’s rehab is reportedly not going well. Jalen McMillan sprains his neck and is out for a few weeks. Suddenly, the door is open for Egbuka who is getting legendary reviews out of camp. And once he shows what he’s got, Tampa won’t be able to take him off the field.

• RB RJ Harvey, DEN – I am in on Harvey. Another day 2 pick, this time to an ascending Denver Broncos offense. Harvey, according to draft projections, was “over-drafted” by Denver, but so was QB Bo Nix this time last year and that is working out pretty well for them. Harvey was an older prospect entering the draft compared to the young men above, so that was a major knock on his profile. I would argue it’s a positive for redraft fantasy though! More experience to me means hitting his prime sooner in the NFL. I like him.

• WR Matthew Golden, GB – Packers fans rioted when their club finally drafted a round 1 receiver for the first time since 2002. I wasn’t in love with Golden as a prospect, but I do like the situation quite a bit for him. WR Jayden Reed is out with a foot injury to start the year and WR Christian Watson may not the play again until 2026. There is opportunity on a good offense with a good quarterback and that is promising. Golden is a favorite “first off the bench” guy in fantasy who could quickly demand a spot in your starting lineup.

• RB Kaleb Johnson, PIT – ANOTHER day 2 RB out of Iowa to the Pittsburgh Steelers, taking over the thumper role from RB Najee Harris. I am not so sure about Johnson. In drafts, he falls in a gross range of backs. I prefer him to names like RB Jordan Mason and RB David Montgomery because again, we do like rookies for their implied upside. The realist in me, however, says that RB Jaylen Warren is just a really solid player, whom the Steelers like him so much that they gave him a 2-year contract extension this week. It’s probably a split backfield, so I’m looking at other positions in this range if the draft allows it.

• TE Tyler Warren, IND – Warren is a fun click as a first-round TE, but please do not expect anyone to be the next Bowers. The positive is that Warren will likely get a lot of targets this year in a subpar receiver room. The negative is the Colts stink. The tight end position is just kind of bad in fantasy, so anyone with upside is worth considering, Warren very much included. Pair him with an Engram for a shot at ceiling and floor.

• TE Colston Loveland, CHI – Loveland is kind of the opposite. Another first-rounder in what may be a very good offense. The downside for him is the sheer amount of talented players in Chicago. Also a fine shot to take but don’t be surprised if he struggles will be getting targets next to WR DJ Moore, WR Rome Odunze, and…

• WR Luther Burden III, CHI – A high-ceiling guy drafted in the second-round to Chicago. Burden has a bit of Pickens in him in that he might scream at the coach and get benched any given week and then go out and make the SportsCenter Top 10 in the following week. He will likely need to prove himself on special teams before getting a consistent role in the offense, so don’t expect a big score from him in week 1. Stash him if he ends up getting dropped to the waiver wire by another manager because there is a non-zero chance that WR DJ Moore gets traded this season and if so, stock up for LB3.

• RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt, WAS – This young man was nowhere near my radar until last month. The hype grew by the day all throughout training camp and reached a peak 2 weeks ago when lead RB Brian Robinson was traded to San Francisco. “Bill” Croskey-Merritt seems to be the guy in Washington, another strong offense. A late riser and a good bye week fill in with even higher upside.

• WR Jayden Higgins, HOU – Lots moving around in the Houston offense this year. Losing Diggs to free agency and WR Tank Dell to injury left a lot of targets on the table opposite young stud WR Nico Collins. The primary shareholder seems to be Higgins, a rookie out of Iowa State.  A fun stash with implied upside if Nico misses time, which he has been a trend for him.

• RB Bhayshul Tuten, JAX – Tuten was a combine darling, posting really nice measurables that had the dynasty streets talking. Apparently the Jags new GM James Gladstone named Tuten in particular during his job interview with Jacksonville brass, making Tuten anecdotally important to the organization. The Jaguars offense looks to be much improved so having the lead back would be very good. Tuten is just 1 of 3 names in that hat, however, with RB Travis Etienne and RB Tank Bigsby. Your guess is as good as mine who ends up with the lead job. If it’s Tuten, that would be a major win for your late-round pick.

• RB Cam Skattebo, NYG – Skattebo made headlines in his last year at Arizona State as the backbone of the school’s playoff offense. Drafted a little later than most people expected, likely the #2 behind RB Tyrone Tracy Jr. to start the year, and in a bad Giant offense, Cam is in fantasy limbo. A good bench guy who could breakout after the Giants bye week but many managers will not have the patience and I get that.

• QB Cam Ward, TEN – It’s disrespectful to go this long without mentioning the #1 overall pick in the NFL draft, but that’s been the story for Cam Ward so far. He has decent tools and an elite mentality that I really don’t want to bet against, but in a 1QB league, I don’t see him being a top 10-12 quarterback in fantasy. A fine ceiling play backup if you end up with a high-floor QB Kyler Murray or QB Dak Prescott in your starting lineup.

• WR Kyle Williams, NE – This is a money-where-my-mouth-is mention. Last year, I said WR Brian Thomas Jr. would become the Jaguars #1 receiver by the end of the year and that came more true than I even thought possible. This is a bigger swing given Williams’s third-round draft capital and lack of training camp news, but betting it again. I’m genuinely just not that scared of Diggs or WR Demario Douglas. He’s a great choice for the end of your fantasy bench.

Some other names for late picks and waiver wire adds are WR Tre Harris, WR Jaylin Noel, WR Isaac Teslaa, RB Jaydon Blue, RB Ollie Gordon II, TE Terrance Ferguson, and WR Elic Ayomanor. All fun swings if you have the roster space.

Under/Overs

Okay, enough player talk because we have FOOTBALL GAMES happening this week. In this returning section, I will list the highest and lowest point totals of the week according to FanDuel Sportsbook. Whether you partake in sports gambling or not, we can all gather information from how Vegas sees the board. They are usually right and more points = more fantasy points. When faced with a difficult start-sit decision, I often use the higher total to break the ties.

Highest Totals:

1. Baltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills (50.5) – Sunday Night Football, NBC Execs REJOICE

2. Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles (47.5) – Sunday Night Football on Thursday Night, NBC Execs REJOICE

3. Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns (47.5)

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons (47.5)

5. Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers (47.5)

Lowest Totals:

1. Pittsburgh Steelers @ New York Jets (38.5) – The all time quarterback revenge game (Justin Fields)

2. Arizona Cardinals @ New Orleans Saints (42.5)

3. Tennessee Titans @ Denver Broncos (42.5)

4. Las Vegas Raiders @ New England Patriots

5. San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks

I’ll leave it at that this week. Tune in next week for some second- and third-year breakouts that would have definitely been more helpful a few weeks ago. Good luck this week gobies!

More writing and old issues here: https://scottkauffman4.wixsite.com/my-site

Nothin’ but love,

Scotty Disco