Week 16: Injury Report & NFL Playoff Scenarios

Hey y’all,

Week 15 was wild. The Bills conquered the NFC-leading Lions, the Jaguars and Jets battled into overtime, and the Rams and 49ers failed to score a single touchdown in the second-highest projected total matchup. Made those under bettors happy. They’re always fun at parties.

Typically, there isn’t much to talk about at this part of the season. The good players stay good. But there were some key injuries to discuss and I want to issue a warning about the NFL playoff picture. Let’s chat.

Week 16 Over/Unders:

Highest Over/Unders (via FanDuel)

• 48.5 – Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals

• 49.5 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys – SNF

Lowest Over/Unders (via FanDuel)

• 39.5 – Jacksonville Jaguars @ Las Vegas Raiders

• 41.5 – New York Giants @ Atlanta Falcons

• 42.5 – New Orleans Saints @ Green Bay Packers – MNF

• 42.5 – Denver Broncos @ Los Angeles Chargers – TNF

Week 16 Defenses for Beth:

1. Minesotta Vikings

2. Green Bay Packers

3. Atlanta Falcons

4. Baltimore Ravens

5. Buffalo Bills

Injury Report:

I did this too early last time. I know. But you can ask my sophomore Biology teacher – sometimes, I just don’t learn! Do me a favor and don’t bring up the frog incident. I am forcing another injury report in here because, on top of A LOT of injuries, some waiver wire adds are actually enticing for the first time in a while. With Christmas Day football twisting the NFL schedule, pay close attention to the practice reports on these folks – the beat reporters know more than I.

• RB Trey Benson (ankle) – You weren’t starting him anyway but listing for handcuff reasons.

• QB Kyler Murray (head) – Kyler left their game briefly Sunday, I think to be evaluated for a concussion, and ultimately returned. He should be okay.

• WR Diontae Johnson (attitude) – Dude can’t even lock in for a revenge game against the Steelers. Loser stuff.

• QB Josh Allen (shoulder) – After dropping another 40-point performance in Detroit, Allen received some X-rays on his shoulder. Came back negative. If Allen carried you to the playoffs though, you should monitor regardless.

• WR Xavier Legette (groin) – XL left the game early on Sunday. He is listed as week-to-week, and ultimately looking to 2025, the Panthers have little reason to rush him back. If WR Adam Thielen is still out there, he is a priority add as the #1 receiver in Carolina. WR Jalen Coker is an add for me as well if you have the space. Good vibes guy for your championship locker room.

• RB Nick Chubb (foot) – Sad to see. Chubb broke his foot. RB Jerome Ford is once again relevant and a priority add if you need an RB2 OR if you opponent does. Pick up Ford before they have the chance.

• CB Patrick Surtain III (ankle) – Unless you are an Individual Defensive Player fantasy sicko like me, this doesn’t matter on paper. But! If you have Chargers WR Ladd McConkey, he may be avoiding the matchup against the league’s premiere cornerback. Good for Conk. Surtain is questionable on a short week. A firm maybe.

• RB David Montgomery (knee) – Knuckles is missing the rest of the season with an MCL injury. Lions can’t catch a break right now and it’s really tough to see for the 27-year-old Montgomery. Thankfully, he has already extended his contract and will return to Detroit next year. RB Jahmyr Gibbs was RB4 in my rankings last week. I might put him at 2 now. Maybe 1. He’s going to crush. RB Craig Reynolds is your new Lions handcuff.

• RB Joe Mixon (ankle) – Mixon left Sunday’s game briefly after receiving a hip-drop tackle. He’s okay.

• WR Alec Pierce (head) – Pierce is in concussion protocol. Maybe increased snap count for WR Josh Downs and/or WR Michael Pittman Jr and/or WR Adonai Mitchell. It’s a stretch though.

• QB Patrick Mahomes (ankle) – The Chiefs are luckily in a good position for the 1-seed already. So if backup QB Carson Wentz has to go a week or two, they should be okay. Mahomes has been unstartable in fantasy for a while, but always scary when a face of the league guy goes down. Wentz is a low-floor, high-ceiling guy so think the same for your KC pass catchers. Don’t rely on them for the usual projection but consider playing them if you need to catch up to your opponent.

• RB Sincere McCormick (ankle) – Left early on Monday. The Raiders offense is putrid right now so look elsewhere if you are patching RB2 together. I mean that, honestly.

• WR Jaylen Waddle (knee) – Waddle is one of those guys that you can pencil in to miss a few games every year. It seems he avoided major injury on this one and is day-to-day. Rookie WR Malik Washington is a little interesting if you are down horrendous (desperate).

• RB Alvin Kamara (groin) – Okay. Big one here. Kamara is 29-year-old running back, with an adductor injury, who the Saints just extended. They should rest him. The Saints are also operating under interim HC Darren Rizzi, however, who is trying to pad his coaching resume through the rest of their schedule. A perfect storm for second-year RB Kendre Miller. Miller was a third-round pick out of TCU who the previous head coach publicly hated for being unavailable throughout his rookie season. Kendre looked healthy finding the endzone on Sunday and has potential league-winning upside if used the same way they do Kamara. Lots of “if”s for this outcome, but worth the add in my opinion.

• QB Derek Carr (head, hand) – Carr has a chance to clear concussion protocol but is also dealing with a hand injury. If he plays, a slight uptick for your New Orleans pass-catchers. Let’s be real though, can you name three?

• QB Tommy DeVito (head) – Concussion protocol. QB Tim Boyle looking at a start for the Giants. Daboll can’t get fired for this, right?

• WR Wan’Dale Robinson (head) – Concussion protocol. Can’t play him anyway.

• RB Braelon Allen (back) – Don’t play any Jets RBs, I beg you.

• QB Jalen Hurts (finger) – Rolled up to the game with a broken finger. Cool. That’s fun. But he’s playing and you should start him.

• QB Geno Smith (knee) – After a scary-looking injury on Sunday night, early reports are positive for Geno. Sounds like he will practice this week, a very good sign. Monitor this one close if you have him.

• RB Kenneth Walker III (calf) – KW3 missed another week, unexpectedly. Seems they are pacing themselves with this calf injury but continue to pace and they will wind up out of the playoffs. RB Zach Charbonnet is a start if Walker misses again this week. To be honest, I am hesitant to start either of them if Walker does play. Might be a split backfield.

• RB Tony Pollard (ankle) – Pollard returned to the game after this ankle injury but was out-snapped by RB Tyjae Spears, back in the lineup. Split backfield alert and a tick down for both of them.

• TE Zach Ertz (head) – Concussion protocol. And a fun fact – my first jersey ever. Love you, Zach. ❤

Not an injury but Browns QB Jameis Winston was benched for QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson on Sunday. DTR is starting in Week 16, so lower the ceiling for WR Jerry Jeudy, TE David Njoku, and everyone else in that passing game. Was fun while it lasted! Same for QB Will Levis but ah, who cares? I’m sure his family does. Sorry Will.

Playoff Scenarios:

Like I said above, there are big NFL playoff implications on the board this weekend. “But Scotty, I don’t care about the Arizona Cardinals. Bed, Bath, & Bijan is the only team I’m worried about.” Right. It’s important to keep the playoff picture in mind though. Because if NFL teams have already secured their seeding in the playoffs OR if they have been entirely eliminated, they may choose to rest their star players in the final weeks. It wouldn’t be the first time someone lost a fantasy championship for that reason. Here is what the current picture looks like.

Current NFC Seeding:

1. Detroit Lions (12-2) – Clinched playoff berth already and would have clinched their division already if they played anywhere except the NFC North with the Vikings banging on their doors. If they win out, they fend off the 1-seed challengers, and secure a bye. With injuries piling up every week, and a week 18 collision course with Minesotta, don’t write that 1-seed in ink quite yet.

2. Philadelphia Eagles (12-2) – Clinched playoff berth and a chance to clinch the NFC East with a win over the Commanders this week. They would need another slip up from the Lions AND to cap off their 10 game win streak for a shot at the bye. Possible, but it would take a lot. They have the rest of their NFC East division games down the stretch. Go birds.

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-6) – Currently leading the NFC South after a dominant 40-point victory in LA this week. WR Mike Evans is back. RB Bucky Irving is gutting it out. QB Baker Mayfield just keeps cooking. With an easy schedule ahead, the Bucs are in position and just need to keep the pace over the rival Atlanta Falcons.

4. Los Angeles Rams (8-6) – Leading the NFC West after “winning” on TNF and watching the Seahawks lose on SNF. Win out and this heavily contested division is theirs. WR Puka Nacua is my best friend in the whole world.

5. Minnesota Vikings (12-2) – Currently Wild-Card No. 1 and have already clinched a spot somewhere in here. They have an outside chance to win their division and earn the bye, but will need to keep pace with the Eagles through a tough schedule AND beat the Lions in the last week of the season. More likely we see them on Super Wild-Card Weekend but a very impressive season from QB Sam Darnold answering the criticism, regardless.

6. Green Bay Packers (10-4) – Wild-Card No. 2 at the moment. The Packers are a solid team with a new and successful run-first identity. Going 0-2 against the Lions this year though means Green Bay would need a miracle for the division. Chance to clinch playoffs hosting the Saints this weekend.

7. Washington Commanders (9-5) – Holding the final Wild-Card right now after these early season darlings squeaked out a 1-point win over the Saints on Sunday. QB Jayden Daniels is talented and we will see in January if he can turn this team into a real noise-maker. If they want a crack at the NFC East title, that starts with a win over the Eagles this week.

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8. Seattle Seahawks (8-6) – Their loss on Sunday Night and a Rams win kicked Seattle out of the picture for now. Their season now hinges on the health of QB Geno Smith. Absolutely still in it if he’s back this week. If not, aaaaaaa it’s Sam Howell szn? Oooooo no no no no

9. Arizona Cardinals (7-7) – With a win over the Patriots, the Cardinals still have a shot at the NFC West. But like, don’t we all? It seems this young team peaked too early this year. The Rams are on the schedule ahead though. Get that win and we can welcome you back to the table.

10. Atlanta Falcons (7-7) – The city of Atlanta should pick a god and pray that this team figures it out. Fans are clamoring for their first-round rookie QB Michael Penix Jr. to replace their $180 million QB Kirk Cousins. And an uninspiring win over the two-win Raiders last night didn’t help. Only a game back from the Buccaneers and the head to head tie breaker over Tampa Bay however, it’s still tight race.

11. San Francisco 49ers (6-8) – Mathematically still in it but life support.

12. Dallas Cowboys (6-8) – Mathematically still in it but life support + no QB + ratio + but lowkey playing good ball now + don’t tell anyone I said that.

Current AFC Seeding:

1. Kansas City Chiefs (13-1) – Chasing their third straight Super Bowl, the Chiefs are in the AFC driver’s seat. They actually beat a bad team by two scores this week so that’s impressive. QB Patrick Mahomes was folded like a lawn chair injured at the end of their win in Cleveland though and that is their main concern. They clinched the AFC West already and have multiple paths to clinching the 1-seed with time to spare.

2. Buffalo Bills (11-3) – Being the owners of the Chiefs only loss and the home of your 2024 MVP QB Josh Allen, the Bills are in a good spot. They would need a Kansas City skid to get the bye but have already locked up the AFC East and will be selling tickets in January.

3. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-4) – HC Mike Tomlin locked up his 18th straight winning season, and a playoff berth, but has yet to secure the AFC North. It is theirs to lose at this point but Baltimore, Kansas City, and Cincinnati on the schedule ahead has to be one of the toughest final acts in the NFL.

4. Houston Texans (9-5) – The Texans are everyone’s favorite team to criticize right now but with a win over the Dolphins and an embarrassing Colts loss, Houston officially cliched a back-to-back AFC South title. You can pretty much pencil them in right here for the playoffs. I, for one, wouldn’t be surprised if they made another run.

5. Baltimore Ravens (9-5) – In at Wild-Card No. 1 right now. They were 14.5 point favorites over the Giants in New York and covered. Breaking news, they are very good. One more win secures a playoff berth and the door is still open for the AFC North. Oh, look at that, the Steelers are in town this week.

6. Denver Broncos (9-5) – The Broncos are likely to make their first playoff appearance since winning Super Bowl 50 with QB Peyton Manning nine years ago. Currently holding Wild-Card No. 2 and a chance to clinch a spot in the dance with a big division game against the Chargers on TNF. A win here goes a long way if you want to avoid the Bills in the playoff bracket. (and you really, really do)

7. Los Angeles Chargers (8-6) – Wild-Card No. 3 now after losing three of their last four games. Not good. Thankfully though, their challengers for this last playoff spot are choking even worse. After this upcoming TNF, it’s Patriots and Raiders to finish up their schedule. Cheese. They should be fine and we will see if their same old Chargers stink follows them into the playoffs.

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8. Indianapolis Colts (6-8) – Go to the corner and think about what you’ve done.

9. Miami Dolphins (6-8) – They got hot when QB Tua Tagovailoa came back, but their backs have been against the wall for a while now and the loss against Houston on Sunday basically ends it.

10. Cincinnati Bengals (6-8) – QB Joe Burrow, WR Ja’Marr Chase, RB Chase Brown, WR Tee Higgins, DE Trey Hendrickson, and DB Cam Taylor-Britt all playing good football. Maybe don’t start 0-3 next year. Life support.

If you have a QB Josh Allen or RB Josh Jacobs leading your team into the fantasy playoffs, and you play until week 18, this is a warning. It would be a shame if Jacobs only played half the game while you are relying on his usual 20 points. So keep an eye on how these NFL contenders are doing. You can always ask me for updates!

See the Fantasy Scoop catalog and my other work here: https://scottkauffman4.wixsite.com/my-site. Good luck this week!