Week 11: Trade Deadline Buys, Sells, & Consulting Over/Unders

Kind eyes, healthy hearts– no. Easy eyes, big heart– how’s that go?                                                                                                                                       

Week 10 was… interesting. The Chiefs got another black magic win, the Cardinals grounded the Jets, and the Bears – beating the Titans, Colts, and Jags early in the season sure was fun, huh? Hope you all got a fantasy victory and are hanging in playoff contention. On to the next one.

Let’s start with a PSA for new players. Like the NFL, most fantasy leagues have trade deadlines around this time of year. For ESPN leagues, I believe the default is Nov. 27th but you should be able to find it easily in your league settings. If the roster needs a little juice for the long haul, it’s time to get those conversations started. And if you still have a losing record, it’s time to get desperate.

Week 11 Bye Weeks & Relevant Players:

• Arizona Cardinals – QB Kyler Murray, RB James Conner, WR Marvin Harrison Jr., TE Trey McBride

• Carolina Panthers – RB Chubba Hubbard, RB Jonathon Brooks, WR Xavier Legette, WR Jalen Coker (rest up my dawg)

• New York Giants – WR Malik Nabers, RB Tyrone Tracy Jr.

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers – QB Baker Mayfield, RB Rashaad White, RB Bucky Irving, WR Mike Evans, TE Cade Otton

Trade Deadline Buys:

• RB Chase Brown – Brown was a 2023 5th round pick out of Illinois. He was previously thought to be a pass-catching, big play kind of guy next to former Bengal RB Joe Mixon. He was a darling of the analytics bros but never a reliable fantasy start with Mixon involved. This past offseason, the Bengals brought in RB Zack Moss to split time with Brown. After earning a significant piece of that pie, Brown has all but taken the job after Moss’s neck injury in Week 9. The Bengals did also acquire Bears committee RB Khalil Herbert and are having a cup of coffee with former fantasy legend RB Leonard Fournette. With all due respect to those gentlemen, I’m not scared. Chase Brown never lost that big play ceiling and with this newfound volume, he now has a decent floor. That sounds like a fantasy starter to me. Wheels up all the way up for Chase Brown if you can still afford him after another TD on Thursday night.

• WR Tyreek Hill – Okay, this is either going to age like bourbon or bananas. I bought Tyreek in my dynasty league last week and couldn’t get the 15 points I needed for a win. It hurt. But we have to keep the head above the waves here. Yes, Tyreek has been bad, but he’s Tyreek Hill. He was voted the #1 best NFL player in the league among his peers last season. QB Tua Tagovailoa is back under center and with a good victory over the Rams on Monday, Miami may still be playing for something. The Tyreek manager has to be tired of the subpar production so now is the time to buy low on a star.

• WR Ladd McConkey – This rookie out of Georgia is an NFL sleeper agent. He’s a homerun in all of the advanced stats but, until a recent spike week, has been only decent in fantasy. Chargers QB Justin Herbert is fighting to get off the Mt. Rushmore of “what if” ball players, playing some good ball right now. Since his studly rookie year, Herbert has dealt with injury, poor offensive line play, an insecure Head Coach, and lackluster receivers (not you Keenan, love you Keenan). That’s all changed this year. Herbert is playing well and his chemistry with Ladd, the space creator, McConkey is growing by the week. Under new HC Jim Harbaugh, the Chargers have been able to win on the ground. But looking ahead at their schedule – Bengals, Ravens, Falcons, Chiefs, Buccaneers – they’re going to have to take some risks and throw the ball. McConkey is primed for a breakout second half and coming off a single-digit week, he shouldn’t be too expensive.

• RB Tyrone Tracey Jr. – A feature of the Waiver Wire section last week, I like Tracey as a straight up buy as well. If it wasn’t already clear, it was crystal in Munich on Sunday: he has completely taken the lead job from RB Devin Singletary. If you rode 49ers RB Jordan Mason into the sunset, if you’ve been patching RB2 together since RB Isaiah Pacheco went down, or if you were dumb enough to draft RB Travis Etienne like me, you are now going to need to get creative for the playoffs. The Derrick Henrys and Saquon Barkleys of the world don’t come cheap. Like Chase Brown, Tracey doesn’t come with that big name tax. If the Tyrone manager needs a win this week and you can afford to eat the bye week, buy on the bye.

• WR Josh Downs – To say the thing that Indianapolis Colts fans don’t want to say out-loud, Josh Downs, the sophomore “WR2” out of North Carolina, is the best receiver on that team. And another thing, the Colts aren’t very good. The Colts staff made the controversial move two weeks ago to bench second-year, attic ceiling-basement floor, QB Anthony Richardson. In comes former Raven, Eagle, and Brown, Jet, and maybe other teams, QB Joe Flacco. So far, he sucks. All of that is to say, whether the Colts ride it out with Joey Flocks or pull Richardson out of time-out early, the Colts are in shambles. Bad teams fall behind in games and are forced to throw the ball. Good for Josh Downs. Their “WR1” Michael Pittman has also been dealing with a back injury all year. Good player when he’s healthy but the word is that’s getting worse before it gets better. For all those reasons, I could see Joshie D get hosed with targets in the second half.

• WR George Pickens – The Steelers also made a controversial QB change a few weeks ago. At 4-2, HC Mike Tomlin gave the ball to another fallen-from-grace Super Bowl winner QB Russell Wilson. Since then, dare I say, Russ has been cookin’. I don’t recommend buying him, because Wilson isn’t running like he used to and therefore doesn’t have access to real deal fantasy QB ceiling. Streaming option? Sure. Third-year highlight reel, George Pickens however, is thriving with the best passer the yinzers have had since Roethlisberger. WR Mike Williams was also acquired at the trade deadline. Some may say that caps Pickens’s ceiling now that he is no longer hogging all the targets. But aside from their two expected low-scoring Cleveland games ahead, the Steelers got the Ravens twice, the Bengals twice, the Eagles, and the Chiefs. They can take those teams but only with a complementary passing game, which I believe they have now found. Pickens should eat.

• WR Jauan Jennings – San Francisco 49er’s Jauan Jennings you may remember from the top of your waiver wire like 7 weeks ago and then never again. The 9ers offense has been riddled with injuries to RB Christian McCaffrey out with Achilles stuff, WR Brandon Aiyuk out with an ACL, MCL, and greed, WR Deebo Samuel hospitalized with pneumonia, and rookie WR Ricky Pearsall missing the first few games because of a gunshot. Jauan Jennings missed a few weeks himself with a hip injury. But he’s back in the lineup now and HC Kyle Shannahan stated after their squeak week 10 win that Jennings will be playing Aiyuk’s X receiver role for the rest of the season. In shallow leagues, I don’t think Jennings is an every week starter on a championship team. In deeper leagues though, you could buy him cheap and make some profit in your flex position if he hits.

• RB Christian McCaffrey – I was hesitant to even put him on here because, like, obviously. But I don’t know, if someone in your league auto-drafted him #1 and doesn’t check the app, just send your first and second born for CMC. They gave him 19 of the 20 RB touches so he’s officially undertaker music back.

• QB Kyler Murray – Buy on the bye if you really fumbled QB this year. Not the same ceiling as a Lamar or Hurts, but I didn’t have a QB listed, and it seems like the Cards are figuring it out. Unsure if there are any Call of Duty double XP weekends coming up but that’s some extra upside too.

• QB Jayden Daniels – Also seems too obvious but if the manager is down on Daniels after a single-digit performance in week 10, he’s a must buy.

• QB Jordan Love – He’s good but he hasn’t been great recently because hurt but I like him and think he’s good. #Analysis

• TE Trey McBride – Buy on the bye. TE George Kittle has been other worldly this year and is now unaffordable, TE Travis Kelce comes with a celebrity tax, and TE Brock Bowers has all the dynasty heads drooling – so give me McBride on another rock solid season.

Trade Deadline Sells:

• WR Ceedee Lamb – It’s not Ceedee, it’s the quarterback. QB Cooper Rush and QB Trey Lance both got time in the Cowboys 34-6 loss this week. Neither of them shined. What’s the opposite of shine? Matte? They’re both rather matte. You could make the same bad-teams-throw-ball argument for Ceedee, but the quarterbacks can’t even do that. If you can still get a first-round sticker price for Ceedee Lamb, do it.

• WR Diontae Johnson – Sorry, Beth. The Ravens aren’t using him. In his defense, Diontae has only been in Baltimore for 14 days. There is still a chance his role becomes more defined with time. However, if the trade deadline for my league is forcing a decision now, and someone is showing interest in DJ, I want out.

• RB Chubba Hubbard – This feels kinda icky because Chubba has earned a lot of respect this year. He’s been a standout feature on a putrid Carolina Panthers team and clearly the front office agrees, rewarding him with a 4-year, $33.2M extension last week. Without any sane hope for playoffs this year though, I have to imagine the Panthers want a look at rookie RB Jonathon Brooks. It could be a committee approach, sinking the value of both of them.

• RB Jonathon Brooks – Your league probably doesn’t know who he is so you probably can’t sell him for much. But that contract extension mentioned above shows the Panthers hand. Brooks was always an upside swing in fantasy, the hope being that he was given the keys to the backfield once he recovered from his ACL tear. But now we know Chubba isn’t going anywhere, so my hopes there are dashed. You win some, you lose some. If there is a Texas alumnus in your league who wants Brooks for the vibes, they can take ‘em.

• RB Breece Hall – I’m done with it. Bad teams are forced to the throw the ball late in games and the New York Jets, despite their star-power, are firmly in that category now. Even in the redzone, the Jets refuse to run the ball. Breece is very, very talented but unlike a Bijan, Kyren, or Kamara, he’s just not the engine of his offense. The Jets are still forcing backup RB Braelon Allen into the game now and then. And so, if someone wants to give me a RB1 or WR1 in return, goodbye Breece Hall.

• WR Amon-Ra St. Brown – Here’s a spicy one. St. Brown is the WR6 on the season, around where he was drafted, so managers should be satisfied with his production so far. Anyone who didn’t watch Sunday Night Football on NBC and Peacock, they don’t know that Amon-Ra got absolutely bailed out with a late TD. The Lions are a really crowded offense. With RB David Montgomery, RB Jahmyr Gibbs, TE Sam LaPorta, and WR Jameson Williams all demanding work, there just aren’t enough points to go around. Moreover, HC Dan Campbell should be giving the ball to Sonic and Knuckles more in the Lions easier schedule ahead. If your team is already playoff bound, don’t worry about it. But if you’re 5-5 or 4-6 right now – if you’re desperate – I would strongly consider moving ARSB for the right price.

• TE Sam LaPorta – Same deal here. LaPorta was clearly an overdraft this year and coming off an inefficient spike week, another manager in your league may be lulled into thinking he is back to rookie form. He’s also a good player, it’s just too up-and-down for me to trust him in the fantasy playoffs. If you can tier down to a Hockenson or an Otton with some juice on top, do it.

• WR Brian Thomas Jr. – This hurts. He was my one and only must-draft guy coming into the season but the rumor is that QB Trevor Lawrence is down for the year. As far as backups go, QB Mac Jones ain’t terrible, but it was a bad situation in Jacksonville to begin with, now getting a little worse. After WR Christian Kirk went on season-ending IR, my hopes were really high for BTJ as the unquestioned #1. Then, in week 10, 3 targets. Very talented player but if another manager has googly eyes looking at the WR12 next to his name, and is willing to give you a more consistent piece, I’m happy to move on and write his name at the top of draft list again next year. If you don’t get any good offers, you can hold and see how it goes in MAC10’s second act.

• RB Kareem Hunt – Hunt has been a waiver wire hero for many, including myself, this season. He got off the couch when Chiefs RB Isaiah Pacheco was sidelined with a leg injury and has been crucial to Kansas City’s undefeated record. With that said, Pacheco is getting positive buzz to return and at the very least, I believe this will be a committee when he does. Sell Hunt now at his ceiling if you can for someone who can be an every week starter down the stretch.

Consulting Over/Unders:

This is a new strategy I have explored this year in making roster decisions. For every single game in the NFL, Las Vegas Sportsbooks set a line for the total points they predict being scored in the game. For example, Thursday Night’s Commanders vs Eagles matchup has a relatively high 49.5 over/under (lines according to FanDuel Sportsbook). That may vary from sportsbook to sportsbook, but usually only a point in either direction. What this tells us – the experts who’s livelihoods depend on these predictions think TNF is going to be a high offense game. High offense is great for fantasy football. If it’s a difficult decision between two players in my FLEX spot, a significant difference in the over/under of those games would influence my decision. This week’s list looks like this.

Highest Over/Unders

- 49.5 – Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles (TNF)

- 49.5 – Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers

- 47.5 – Jacksonville Jaguars @ Detroit Lions

- 47.5 – Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Lowest Over/Unders

- 39.5 – Minnesota Vikings @ Tennessee Titans

- 41.5 – Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears

- 42.5 – Houston Texans @ Dallas Cowboys (MNF)

After looking at the numbers, it wasn’t the best week to start this section. Some O/Us get as low as 32.5 and as high as 54.5. That’s the kind of significant difference I’m talking about. This 39.5 isn’t damning for your Vikings and Titans and the 49.5 isn’t an absolute homerun for your Eagles and Commanders, but in a close decision between Commanders RB Austin Ekeler (assuming no B-Rob) or Titans RB Tony Pollard, I may lean Ekeler. Something to note!

Defenses For Beth:

Defense is a fishing position. You’re just looking for sacks, turnovers, and the occasional defensive touchdown. If you can accurately predict those, quit your job and move to Vegas. I would prefer defenses not be in the game but ESPN, Yahoo, and Sleeper haven’t returned my calls. They are in the game so here are my favorites this week.

1. Minnesota Vikings

2. Houston Texans

3. Detroit Lions

4. Cleveland Browns

5. Green Bay Packers

That’s it for this week! Whole new format for this issue. Let me know which segments you would like and which ones you missed from last week. I’ll be posting the catalog on my website along with some personal projects here: https://scottkauffman4.wixsite.com/my-site. Thanks for reading! Good luck in week 11!